Economic decisions and judgments on road safety and health : a psychological approach

Programa de Doctorado en EconomíaEn esta tesis trato de contribuir a esta cuestión mediante el estudio de métodos de preferencias declaradas destinados a la obtención de preferencias en el contexto de la salud y la seguridad vial. En los dos primeros capítulos dos de los métodos principales que se utilizan en Economía de la Salud y la evaluación de programas de seguridad son objeto de estudio: la Valoración Contingente (VC) y una versión modificada de la Lotería Estándar (LEM). En el tercer capítulo se analiza otro de los métodos más importantes en Economía de la Salud: el Time Trade Off (TTO). Con respecto al Capítulo 1 analizo la VC y la LEM. Los resultados indican que las valoraciones son muy distintas. En particular, los valores estimados a través de la LEM son muy inferiores a los valores derivados de la VC. Este es un resultado consistente con estudios previos. En la búsqueda de una justificación de este resultado considero el caso en que los individuos se comportan de acuerdo a Prospect Theory en lugar de seguir los supuestos de la Teoría de la Utilidad Esperada. Tras derivar las valoraciones teóricas encuentro una relación diferente entre los métodos utilizados. Los resultados indican que el uso de Prospect Theory como la base para el cálculo de las valoraciones por la LEM hace acercar este método a la VC. No obstante, persisten diferencias entre la LEM y la VC, y por lo tanto rechazamos a Prospect Theory como la única explicación. Por otro lado, y de manera sorprendente, se obtiene un mejor ajuste de los valores de la VC por las respuestas a una Escala Visual Analógica (EVA). Un análisis de consistencia pone de manifiesto que la VC es más insensible a la gravedad de los estados de salud que se valoran. Al mismo tiempo, las personas cometen más errores en el método de la LEM. En el segundo capítulo, examino el efecto del modo de evaluación (ME) a través del análisis de la Evaluación Conjunta (EC) y Evaluación Separada (ES) para ambos procedimientos, la VC y la LEM. La sensibilidad de las valoraciones de los estados de salud es más alta en EC tanto para la VC como para la LEM. Sin embargo, la insensibilidad encontrada en ES es mucho más extrema para la VC. En el mismo capitulo 2 comparo también diferentes grupos de EC para analizar los efectos de contexto. Los resultados indican que los efectos de contexto afectan más a las respuestas de la VC que las valoraciones de la LEM. En la última parte del capítulo analizo la valoración de la seguridad vial en función del escenario de renta en que se encuentran los individuos: un escenario de las pérdidas (con ingresos corrientes inferiores a los ingresos normales o medios); un escenario de ganancias (con ingresos corrientes superiores a los ingresos normales); y un escenario neutral (con ingresos corriente iguales a los ingresos normales). Los resultados indican que aquéllas personas en un marco de ganancias indican una mayor satisfacción en la vida que las de un marco neutral o de pérdidas. Es más, la disposición a pagar para evitar el riesgo de una muerte o lesión en carretera. derivadas de las repuestas a la VC, es mayor para los individuos en un escenario de ganancias. Este resultado se puede explicar por una función de utilidad que depende de los ingresos de referencia (renta permanente o renta promedio). Por el contrario no se encuentran efectos para el caso de la LEM. Finalmente en el capítulo 3 se analizan los datos de un experimento basado en una encuesta online para estudiar si el método TTO está afectado por los efectos de contexto predichos por el modelo de la Rage Frequency Theory (RFT). El atractivo de esta teoría es que podemos calcular el ¿valor real subyacente¿ para los estados de salud objeto de valoración. Los resultados encontrados en esta tesis sugieren que RFT predice correctamente los efectos del contexto. Sin embargo, la aplicación de RFT a los datos no deriva en valoraciones "libres de contexto". En conclusión, esta tesis estudia sesgos e inconsistencias entre los procedimientos de obtención de valoraciones en salud. Estos sesgos no son tenidos en cuenta por el modelo estándar en Economía, sin embargo su existencia es un desafío para el análisis económico. Se deberían establecer criterios normativos para la elección de los procedimientos más adecuados.Universidad Pablo de Olavide. Centro de Estudios de Postgrad

Diferencias Regionales en Rendimiento Educativo en España: ¿La Familia lo Explica Todo?

PISA 2006 results showed huge differences in educational attainment across Spanish regions. The aim of this paper is to analyze the factors explaining these differences. Our results indicate that differences in family characteristics of students from different regions are crucial in explaining them. However, we also find that differences in regional educational systems are important factors explaining differences in education outcome. The variables related to regional particularities of the educational system are important in explaining the different results in different academic areas. The implications in terms of educational policies of the latter result are many, especially for the implementation of policies to reduce regional economic disparities.PISA; Rendimiento educativo; Análisis Regional; Descomposición de las diferencias; Sistema educativo; Políticas Públicas.

Improving scope sensitivity in contingent valuation: joint and separate evaluation of health states

We present data of a contingent valuation survey, testing the effect of evaluation mode on the monetary valuation of preventing road accidents. Half of the interviewees was asked to state their willingness to pay (WTP) to reduce the risk of having only 1 type of injury (separate evaluation, SE), and the other half of the sample was asked to state their WTP for 4 types of injuries evaluated simultaneously (joint evaluation, JE). In the SE group, we observed lack of sensitivity to scope while in the JE group WTP increased with the severity of the injury prevented. However, WTP values in this group were subject to context effects. Our results suggest that the traditional explanation of the disparity between SE and JE, namely, the so-called “evaluability,” does not apply here. The paper presents new explanations based on the role of preference imprecision

Does grade retention affect achievement? Some evidence from Pisa

Grade retention practices are at the forefront of the educational debate. In this paper, we use PISA 2009 data for Spain to measure the effect of grade retention on students’achievement. One important problem when analyzing this question is that school outcomes and the propensity to repeat a grade are likely to be determined simultaneously. We address this problem by estimating a Switching Regression Model. We find that grade retention has a negative impact on educational outcomes, but we confirm the importance of endogenous selection, which makes observed differences between repeaters and non-repeaters appear 14.6% lower than they actually are. The effect on PISA scores of repeating is much smaller (-10% of non-repeaters’average) than the counterfactual reduction that non-repeaters would suffer had they been retained as repeaters (-24% of their average). Furthermore, those who repeated a grade during primary education suffered more than those who repeated a grade of secondary school, although the effect of repeating at both times is, as expected, much larger

Does grade retention affect achievement? Some evidence from PISA

Grade retention practices are at the forefront of the educational debate. In this paper, we use PISA 2009 data for Spain to measure the effect of grade retention on students' achievement. One important problem when analyzing this question is that school outcomes and the propensity to repeat a grade are likely to be determined simultaneously. We address this problem by estimating a Switching Regression Model. We find that grade retention has a negative impact on educational outcomes, but we confirm the importance of endogenous selection, which makes observed differences between repeaters and non-repeaters appear 14.6% lower than they actually are. The effect on PISA scores of repeating is much smaller (-10% of non-repeaters' average) than the counterfactual reduction that non-repeaters would suffer had they been retained as repeaters (-24% of their average). Furthermore, those who repeated a grade during primary education suffered more than those who repeated a grade of secondary school, although the effect of repeating at both times is, as expected, much larger

Healthy eating and lifestyle in pregnancy (HELP): a cluster randomised trial to evaluate the effectiveness of a weight management intervention for pregnant women with obesity on weight at 12 months postpartum

Objective: To assess whether a weight management intervention for pregnant women with obesity was effective in reducing body mass index (BMI) 12 months after giving birth. Methods: Pragmatic, cluster randomised controlled trial (RCT) with embedded cost-effectiveness analysis. 598 women with a BMI of ≥30 kg/m2 (between 12 and 20 weeks gestation) were recruited from 20 secondary care maternity units in England and Wales. BMI at 12 months postpartum was the primary outcome. A range of clinical and behavioural secondary outcomes were examined. Interventions: Women attending maternity units randomised to intervention were invited to a weekly weight management group, which combined expertise from a commercial weight loss programme with clinical advice from midwives. Both intervention and control participants received usual care and leaflets on diet and physical activity in pregnancy. Results: Mean (SD) BMI at 12 months postpartum was 36.0 kg/m2 (5.2) in the control group, and 37.5 kg/m2 (6.7) in the intervention group. After adjustment for baseline BMI, the intervention effect was −0.02 (95% CI −0.04 to 0.01). The intervention group had an improved healthy eating score (3.08, 95% CI 0.16 to 6.00, p < 0.04), improved fibre score (3.22, 1.07 to 5.37, p < 0.01) and lower levels of risky drinking at 12 months postpartum compared to the control group (OR 0.45, 0.27 to 0.74, p < 0.002). The net incremental monetary benefit was not statistically significantly different between arms, although the probability of the intervention being cost-effective was above 60%, at policy-relevant thresholds. Conclusions: There was no significant difference between groups on the primary outcome of BMI at 12 months. Analyses of secondary outcomes indicated improved healthy eating and lower levels of risky drinking. Trial registration: Current Controlled Trials ISRCTN25260464

Valuation of safety under reference-dependent evaluation of income

We analyze data of a Spanish nationally-representative survey where subjects reported their willingness to pay (WTP) for road safety improvements, specifically they hypothetically paid for a reduction of the risk of a road fatality and several injuries. Respondents also reported their current income (CI) and permanent income (PI). The latter refers to their normal income once they considered various stages of low/high earnings throughout their entire lives. Consequently, we define relative income as the comparison of CI with respect to PI. Three income frames are generated as explanatory variables: gain (with CI > PI); neutral (with CI = PI); and loss scenario (with CI &lt; PI). Surprisingly, we find that conditional on current income, and on a set of characteristics, those respondents in gain frame reported higher WTP than those in neutral and loss scenario. Further analysis shows that the income frames effect is higher and more significant for the older half-sample (>45), being about three or four times higher than for the younger subset. Possible interpretations of the role of PI as a reference point are considered given the results. A reference-dependent utility function of income, where PI is the reference point, is proposed to describe the monetary valuation of safety within the theoretical framework previously developed in the safety economics literature

Does grade retention affect achievement? Some evidence from PISA

Grade retention practices are at the forefront of the educational debate. In this paper, we use PISA 2009 data for Spain to measure the effect of grade retention on students achievement. One important problem when analyzing this question is that school outcomes and the propensity to repeat a grade are likely to be determined simultaneously. We address this problem by estimating a Switching Regression Model. We find that grade retention has a negative impact on educational outcomes, but we confi rm the importance of endogenous selection, which makes observed differences between repeaters and non-repeaters appear 14.6% lower than they actually are. The effect on PISA scores of repeating is much smaller (-10% of non-repeaters average) than the counterfactual reduction that non-repeaters would suffer had they been retained as repeaters (-24% of their average). Furthermore, those who repeated a grade during primary education suffered more than those who repeated a grade of secondary school, although the effect of repeating at both times is, as expected, much larger

Does grade retention affect achievement? Some evidence from PISA

Grade retention practices are at the forefront of the educational debate. In this paper, we use PISA 2009 data for Spain to measure the effect of grade retention on students' achievement. One important problem when analyzing this question is that school outcomes and the propensity to repeat a grade are likely to be determined simultaneously. We address this problem by estimating a Switching Regression Model. We find that grade retention has a negative impact on educational outcomes, but we confi rm the importance of endogenous selection, which makes observed differences between repeaters and non-repeaters appear 14.6% lower than they actually are. The effect on PISA scores of repeating is much smaller (-10% of non-repeaters' average) than the counterfactual reduction that non-repeaters would suffer had they been retained as repeaters (-24% of their average). Furthermore, those who repeated a grade during primary education suffered more than those who repeated a grade of secondary school, although the effect of repeating at both times is, as expected, much larger